Global energy markets face a critical turning point as Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warns that exports from the Gulf region could come to a complete stop "within weeks" if the ongoing war with Iran continues to escalate. In an interview with The Financial Times, al-Kaabi stated that prolonged conflict would directly impact GDP growth worldwide, driving up energy prices and creating product shortages.
The Immediate Impact on Global Supply
Qatar, which halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production on Monday following Iranian missile and drone attacks, represents approximately 20 percent of global LNG supply. This production plays a crucial role in balancing demand in both Asian and European markets. The minister's warning comes as Iranian attacks increasingly target energy infrastructure, causing gas prices to spike and raising international alarm.
"Everybody's energy price is going to go higher," al-Kaabi told the FT. "There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply."
Force Majeure and Production Challenges
The minister expects all Gulf exporters to declare force majeure—a legal provision freeing companies from liability during extraordinary events—within days if the conflict persists. Even if hostilities ended immediately, al-Kaabi noted it would take Qatar "weeks to months" to return to normal delivery cycles.
Thijs Van de Graaf, an energy fellow at the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, explained the practical challenges: tanker traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has dropped dramatically, forcing regional producers to shut down production. "You do not turn on and off an oil well like flipping the switch of a light," Van de Graaf told Al Jazeera. "This is bad news and the clock is ticking for many producers in the region."
Escalating Conflict with No Resolution in Sight
The war shows no signs of abating, with senior U.S. officials promising to rain "death and destruction" on Iran amid growing concerns about a potential ground invasion. Iran continues to fire at regional targets despite international condemnation, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stating in a social media post that Iran remains "committed to lasting peace in the region yet we have no hesitation in defending our nation's dignity & sovereignty."
Pezeshkian added that any mediation efforts "should address those who underestimated the Iranian people and ignited this conflict," referring to the U.S. and Israel.
The situation presents a clear practical tradeoff: continued military escalation risks not just regional stability but global economic stability through energy market disruption. With Qatar's warning putting a specific timeline on potential export halts, the pressure for diplomatic resolution intensifies as energy prices climb and supply chains face unprecedented strain.
