Put on your space helmets. Early tracking suggests Illumination, Nintendo and Universal’s Super Mario Galaxy is on track to open to more than $160 million domestically in its five-day Easter run. The film hits theaters on April 1.

How that stacks up

The prediction is conservative compared with the first animated Super Mario Bros movie from 2023, which posted a five-day domestic total of $204.6 million and a three-day of $146.3 million. That 2023 opening was the second best domestic Easter debut after 2016’s Batman v. Superman which opened to $166 million.

Looking at all April releases, the first Super Mario Bros film ranked among the top five openings, though April will always have the giant footprint left by 2019’s Avengers Endgame, which opened to $357.1 million.

Why Galaxy could do even better

  • Audience reach: The movie tests highest as the top choice among males under 25, but it is strong across demographics.
  • Unaided awareness: People know this movie is coming without being prompted, on par with last year’s Lilo & Stitch and the first animated Mario film, and ahead of A Minecraft Movie.
  • Positive carryover: The original Mario animated entry earned an A CinemaScore, so a stronger follow-up would not be shocking.

Super Mario Galaxy is clearly inspired by the video game. The basic logline: Mario blasts into space to explore cosmic worlds and face galactic challenges far outside the familiar Mushroom Kingdom.

Also tracking: A24’s The Drama

A24’s Zendaya and Robert Pattinson rom-com The Drama is tracking at about $15 million, roughly the same launch that Zendaya’s non-IP film Challengers posted in 2024. The Drama performs best with women under 25 in both first-choice and unaided awareness metrics. Directed by Kristoffer Borgli, the film follows an engaged couple whose wedding week spins off course after an unexpected event.

Bottom line: Super Mario Galaxy looks set to be the big draw over Easter, with strong early indicators across age and awareness. Meanwhile, boutique fare like The Drama aims for a respectable specialty opening aligned with recent similar releases.