Tehran says Washington is talking peace and planning war

Iran warned the United States on the 30th day of the conflict that it is ready to confront any ground assault, accusing Washington of pretending to pursue talks while secretly laying plans for a land operation. The war, which has killed thousands and caused the biggest disruption yet to global energy supplies, has now entered its second month. So far, the region is handling this with its usual mix of diplomacy, missile fire and mutual suspicion.

In a message marking 30 days since the fighting began, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, said: “The enemy signals negotiation in public, while in secret it plots a ground attack.”

He added: “Our firing continues. Our missiles are in place. Our determination and faith have increased.” Ghalibaf said Iranian forces were “waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional partners for ever”.

Donald Trump did not exactly calm the mood. In an interview published on Sunday night, he told the Financial Times that his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran and said of Kharg island, a key export hub, “We could take it very easily.”

The paper also reported that Trump said indirect US-Iran talks, conducted through Pakistani “emissaries,” were moving forward well enough despite the threats and the open talk of seizing Iranian oil production.

Asked whether a ceasefire could be reached in the coming days and whether that might reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump avoided specifics. “We’ve got about 3,000 targets left - we’ve bombed 13,000 targets - and another couple of thousand targets to go. A deal could be made fairly quickly,” he said.

Regional diplomacy tries to keep pace with escalation

While regional powers met in Pakistan in an effort to nudge the conflict toward a negotiated end, the weekend brought more signs of escalation. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis joined the war for the first time, and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was widening its invasion of southern Lebanon.

The Israeli air force later said it intercepted two unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Yemen. In Lebanon, the UN peacekeeping mission, Unifil, said a peacekeeper was killed when a projectile exploded at one of its positions near the southern village of Adchit al-Qusayr on Sunday.

Another peacekeeper was critically injured, Unifil said early on Monday. “We do not know the origin of the projectile. We have launched an investigation to determine all of the circumstances,” the mission said.

Pentagon weighing ground options

According to US officials quoted by the Washington Post, the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of possible ground operations in Iran as thousands of American soldiers and marines arrive in the Middle East.

Any US ground action would likely stop short of a full invasion and would instead rely on raids by special operations forces and conventional infantry, according to reports on contingency planning. Even a limited operation would put American troops within range of Iranian drones, missiles, ground fire and improvised explosives. In other words, the sort of risk planners love to describe in calm briefings.

Among the options reportedly under discussion are seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, and carrying out raids on coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz to destroy weapons threatening commercial and military shipping. Axios and the Wall Street Journal have also reported that the Pentagon is considering sending another 10,000 troops to the region, alongside a wider bombing campaign.

The White House has sent mixed messages, alternating between de-escalation language and threats of a broader war. Karoline Leavitt, the press secretary, said Pentagon planning was meant to give Trump “maximum optionality”, not to indicate a final decision. The Post said it remained unclear whether Trump would approve any plan to deploy ground troops.

Trump says regime change has already happened

On Sunday, Trump said the US-Israel war had already produced regime change in Iran, while also insisting he would “make a deal” with the Iranians.

“I think we’ll make a deal with them, pretty sure ... but we’ve had regime change,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, pointing to the number of Iranian leaders killed during the month-long war.

He added: “We’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before. It’s a whole different group of people. So I would consider that regime change.”

Damage, casualties and wider regional fallout

Photos published on Sunday showed a US command and control aircraft destroyed at an airbase in Saudi Arabia. A US official told Reuters on Friday that 12 US personnel had been wounded in an Iranian military attack on the base.

Also on Sunday, Pope Leo appeared to rebuke the Trump administration, saying God ignored the prayers of leaders who wage war and had “hands full of blood”. His remarks came days after US defence secretary Pete Hegseth prayed for violence against enemies who deserved “no mercy”.

The war, which began on 28 February, has shown no sign of easing despite repeated diplomatic efforts. Pakistan, which is being viewed as a possible mediator between Washington and Tehran, hosted a four-way meeting on Sunday with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt. That came a day after Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke with Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian.

Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, said later on Sunday that his country would soon host talks between the US and Iran.

“Pakistan is very happy that both Iran and the US have expressed their confidence in Pakistan’s facilitation,” Dar said in a televised speech, adding that the talks would take place in the “coming days”.

There was no immediate confirmation from either Washington or Tehran.

Last week, the US presented Iran with a 15-point ceasefire proposal that included reopening the Strait of Hormuz and limiting Iran’s nuclear programme. Tehran rejected the plan and put forward alternatives. Iran has also denied holding formal talks with Washington, although an anonymous source cited by the Iranian news agency Tasnim said Tehran passed its response to the proposal through Islamabad.

Houthis join the fight, adding another maritime risk

The Houthis said they launched two missiles at Israel on Saturday, their first attacks on the country since the conflict began. Their entry into the war adds a new threat to global shipping if they again target vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb strait off the Red Sea, a route through which about 12% of global oil trade usually passes.

A shutdown of the strait would deepen the war’s already severe effect on the world economy and could also revive the Saudi-Yemen conflict that caused major humanitarian suffering for seven years before a truce in 2022.

Since the US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February, Saudi Arabia has been able to divert some of its oil exports by pipeline to the Red Sea. Saudi commentators have said that if that route is threatened as well, Riyadh could enter the war directly.

Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow in Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme, said the Houthis’ move was a major escalation.

“The decision by the Houthis to join the broader Middle East conflict marks a serious and deeply concerning escalation,” he said. “The potential impact on key commercial maritime routes, especially in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait, cannot be overstated. At the same time, vital economic and military infrastructure across the Gulf region may become increasingly exposed.”

Israel intensifies attacks in Iran and Lebanon

Israel’s military said on Sunday that its air force had struck Iran’s weapons manufacturing infrastructure the previous day, including dozens of storage and production sites.

Iranian state media said five people were killed in a strike on a pier in the southern port of Bandar-e-Khamir, where two vessels were also destroyed. In Tehran, a building housing Qatar’s Al Araby TV was hit and there were power outages in the east of the city.

Netanyahu also announced that Israel would expand its invasion of southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces continue targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group.

“In Lebanon, I have just ordered the military to further expand the existing security zone,” Netanyahu said in a video statement. “This is intended to definitively neutralise the threat of invasion [by Hezbollah militants] and to keep anti-tank missile fire away from the border.”

A funeral was held in Lebanon on Sunday for three journalists killed in an Israeli strike the day before. Officials say more than 1,100 people have been killed in the fighting in Lebanon since the Iran war began.

Unifil also said a peacekeeper was killed when a projectile exploded at one of its positions near Adchit al-Qusayr on Sunday, and another was critically injured.

An Iranian missile sparked a fire in the Neot Hovav industrial zone near Beersheba in Israel, and officials were assessing the risk of a hazardous materials leak while urging the public to stay away. Adama, a manufacturer of active ingredients and crop protection materials, said its Makhteshim plant was hit.

The Israel Defense Forces said later on Sunday that the impact may have been caused by missile shrapnel. Soroka hospital in Beersheba said it treated six people with minor injuries.

Reuters contributed to this report