Donald Trump is once again trying to use NATO as leverage to make European governments follow the United States into a military situation in the Gulf. The spark was an unprovoked US strike on Iran. Tehran responded by targeting US assets and allies and by closing the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, which pushed global oil prices higher. Now the US president is asking Europe to help fix the fallout. Europe should refuse.

What has happened so far

The conflict is already costly and deadly. At least 13 US service members have been killed. Iranian civilian deaths are far higher, with reports of more than 1,200 fatalities. The US government spent about $16.5 billion in just the first 12 days of combat operations, a sum larger than some countries' annual humanitarian budgets.

Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has squeezed energy supplies and driven up oil prices. Higher energy costs could push parts of Europe and Asia into recession if the disruption continues.

How European governments are reacting

The majority of European capitals have pushed back on the idea of taking part in US-led military operations in the Gulf. Germany's defence minister was blunt: "It is not our war. We did not start it." Some leaders are exploring options to protect shipping lanes, and there has been talk of changing the mandate of an EU naval operation so it could operate in the Strait of Hormuz. For now, most EU governments oppose sending more forces into the region.

That opposition has a practical reason. Moving European ships and troops into the Gulf increases the chance they will be targeted. Any deployment beyond defensive measures risks drawing European forces into direct confrontation.

Public opinion and political limits

  • Polling in the United Kingdom and Germany shows roughly 60% of respondents oppose the US-led action, with about 25% in favour.
  • In Italy and France, majorities also oppose intervention, with reported opposition around 56% and 63% respectively.
  • Donald Trump remains broadly unpopular across many parts of Europe, which makes any alliance-driven cooperation politically sensitive for national leaders.

Why Europe should not be dragged in

There are clear strategic and political costs to joining this war. European governments are asking citizens to accept higher defence spending and tougher budgets to deter their main security threat: Russia. That is a heavy lift while people are struggling with the cost of living. If European forces are pulled into the Middle East, public support for rearmament and for long term defence planning will fall apart.

Russia remains the primary security threat to Europe. Beyond the full scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow continues campaigns that target infrastructure, conduct sabotage, and spread disinformation designed to weaken social cohesion and democratic institutions. Intelligence assessments warn that Russia could pose a direct territorial threat to a NATO state in the medium term. Europe needs its political will and military resources focused on that challenge.

What Europe should do instead

  • Push the US toward de-escalation. European leaders should use their diplomatic channels to encourage negotiations and a ceasefire rather than military escalation.
  • Adopt a defensive military posture. Forces already in the eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf should prioritize missile defence, protection of their personnel, and safeguarding shipping near their assets.
  • Minimize new deployments. Europe should avoid sending major additional combat forces to the region to reduce the risk of being targeted and of wider involvement.
  • Support diplomatic avenues. Use whatever influence exists to seek a negotiated settlement, even if that influence is limited.

This is not a neutral judgement about the Middle East. It is a strategic argument for Europe to choose its priorities. The war in the Gulf threatens European economies and political cohesion, and it pulls focus away from the continent's most urgent security challenge. For now, the sensible course is to refuse to be a junior partner in a conflict that could undo the very political consensus needed to defend Europe.