Call it a risky bet or a diplomatic long shot. The Trump administration keeps trying to negotiate a truce between Russia and Ukraine, and one key motive rarely spelled out is simple: China.

The logic, in plain terms

Administration officials believe the biggest long-term geopolitical problem for the United States is China, not Russia. So the idea goes like this: if Washington can get closer to Moscow, even a little, it might change the global balance and limit Beijing’s reach.

An anonymous official involved in the talks said finding “a way to align closer with Russia” could create “a different power balance with China that could be very, very beneficial.” That reasoning helps explain why envoys like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have kept searching for a breakthrough despite more than a year of stalled discussions.

Why Ukraine worries about this plan

  • Ukrainian officials say past attempts to build ties through diplomacy did not stop Russian aggression.
  • They worry offering Russia economic incentives risks rewarding the country that invaded Ukraine.
  • One anonymous Ukrainian source noted both Russia and China share deep hostility toward the United States as a democratic model, which complicates any strategy to split them.

How this fits into broader moves to counter China

The truce push is part of a wider effort to limit Chinese influence around the world. The White House has targeted allies of China in the Western Hemisphere, pressured Venezuela and Cuba, and praised partners that move away from Beijing’s projects. Officials also flagged concerns about Chinese economic ties in Latin America as a national security issue.

Another piece of this puzzle is energy. China imported significant oil from Iran and other countries in 2025. A U.S. official argued that China has benefited from buying oil at very low prices from places like Venezuela, Iran and Russia, effectively subsidizing its growth by an estimated amount topping $100 billion a year.

Diplomacy keeps moving

Talks have continued even as reports suggest Moscow shares intelligence with Iran. Recently, Witkoff and Kushner met with Kirill Dmitriev, a close adviser to President Putin. Russia described the meeting as productive. Negotiators say they will keep talking.

The National Security Strategy released late last year places heavy emphasis on China as a strategic challenge. Many U.S. lawmakers from both parties echo that view.

Echoes of past strategy and outside views

Some strategists compare the effort to Cold War moves that shifted alliances in Asia. The idea of using diplomacy to divide rival powers has historical precedent, but breaking a modern partnership is not easy.

Supporters of the approach argue:

  • Normalizing relations with Russia could reduce the Russia-China partnership and ease some global tensions.
  • Pressing for Russia to rejoin major international forums would signal a return to a rules-based order.

Critics say:

  • The Russia-China relationship looks durable. Some experts call it nearly iron-clad and doubt a U.S. push will produce a lasting split.
  • At best, diplomacy may win limited, tactical cooperation from Russia rather than a long-term realignment.

China’s leaders publicly reaffirm the bilateral partnership with Russia. Chinese officials say the relationship remains strong in a turbulent world.

Reality check

Even supporters admit this is an uphill effort. Separating Moscow from Beijing would be difficult while both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping remain in power. Other analysts note Russia is a junior partner to China in many strategic ways, giving China border security, energy, and diplomatic depth. For those analysts, the true center of gravity in the U.S.-China competition is East Asia.

So the truce talks are partly about Ukraine, but they are also about positioning against China. Whether that calculation will pay off remains an open question. For now, the administration is keeping the conversations alive and hoping for a diplomatic surprise.