Oil markets have gone from tense to chaotic since the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran intensified. One clear outcome so far: Russian crude is getting a lot of attention, and a surprising number of buyers.

How did this happen?

After the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, world oil flows were disrupted. That sea lane normally carries a big share of Gulf oil and gas, and its closure created a sharp supply gap. In response, the US announced a temporary easing of sanctions on some Russian oil shipments. The goal was to blunt a worsening shortage and calm global markets, but it also opened the door for more Russian exports.

Key moves and numbers

  • Sanctions easing: The US granted time-limited waivers for some shipped Russian oil following diplomatic contacts in early March.
  • Price moves: Brent crude climbed from about $65 before the conflict to above $100 after the strait closure. Russia's Urals grade rose from under $60 to roughly $90 per barrel.
  • Extra revenue: Researchers at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimate Russia earned about 672 million euros in additional oil sales during the first two weeks of the fighting.
  • Security shock: The conflict moved up a level after strikes on Iran's major gas and energy infrastructure, which added to market strain.

Why Russian crude fits the bill

Refineries facing a sudden loss of Gulf supply need medium-sour crude. Russia's Urals grade matches many refineries' requirements. With less supply available from the Gulf, buyers prioritized securing barrels even if that meant paying more or stretching sanction rules.

Are tankers actually changing course?

Yes. Data showed several cargoes that were heading to China were rerouted to India. At least one tanker loaded with Russian oil was reported to be bound for an Indian port after being chartered by a local refinery. India was among the first countries to receive a time-limited US exemption to import Russian oil that was already at sea.

Who is buying Russian oil now?

  • India and China: These two remain the main buyers of Russia's seaborne exports. India's purchases have surged in recent weeks as it fills strategic stocks and domestic demand.
  • Turkiye: Using Russian crude to stabilize its market amid regional gas disruptions.
  • Shadow fleet buyers: Older tankers and complex ship-to-ship transfers are moving oil to smaller, less-regulated refineries across Southeast Asia and the Middle East, obscuring origin and widening the buyer base.

What if sanctions return?

If the US re-imposes secondary sanctions, some buyers may still buy Russian crude if they cannot get enough oil elsewhere. That would probably push buyers to demand steeper discounts to cover legal and financial risk. At the same time, sustained shortages make it likely that the US could extend exemptions to avoid a deeper market crisis.

Who else could benefit?

Other non-OPEC producers could win market share if they can increase output. Norway has signaled it will keep production high for European needs. Canada could also help, but its ability to raise exports quickly is limited by pipelines and infrastructure constraints.

In short, the temporary policy shifts and the physical disruption of Gulf flows have turned Russian crude into a go-to supply for some buyers. Whether this remains a long-term advantage for Moscow depends on how the conflict, sanctions and global diplomacy evolve.