President Donald Trump has been telling anyone who will listen that Washington is in "productive" discussions with Iran. Iranian officials, predictably, have called those claims fake news and say the headlines are meant to calm oil markets.

Behind the scenes there may be a small diplomatic back channel. Officials in Egypt, Turkiye and Pakistan have reportedly been relaying messages between American and Iranian actors in recent days. Still, outside experts are skeptical that this will turn into a real ceasefire because both sides remain far apart on what they want.

How the war shifted Iran’s stance

Iranian leaders appear to have hardened their position since the conflict flared on February 28, when US and Israeli strikes hit Iran and killed its then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran now seems to expect bigger concessions if it is to stand down.

The US and Israel say their sustained campaign has heavily reduced Iran’s military capacity. The Pentagon has claimed about 90 percent of Iran’s missile capability was destroyed. Even so, Iran has demonstrated it can still launch precise strikes when it chooses.

The fighting has paralyzed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil. Iran has adopted an "eye for an eye" approach designed to restore deterrence and signal that attacks will be answered.

Recent incidents include Iranian strikes on Qatar’s main gas facility, which removed roughly 17 percent of Qatar’s export capacity, after an Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars field. Following an assault on Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, two Iranian ballistic missiles reportedly got past Israeli defenses and struck the southern Israeli cities of Arad and Dimona, injuring more than 180 people.

What Tehran is asking for now

Analysts say Iran is aiming for more than a simple ceasefire. Its negotiating goals now look like a package that would restore deterrence and include economic and security guarantees for the long term.

Key demands being voiced by Iranian officials include:

  • Repatriation of payments and reparations for wartime damage.
  • Binding guarantees that Iran will not be attacked again.
  • A new framework for how commercial traffic transits the Strait of Hormuz.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, notes that Iran is now considering ways to monetize its control over the strait, including talk about charging passage fees. That kind of leverage, analysts say, is unlikely to be surrendered without major concessions.

Tehran also appears to believe the war has already yielded some economic breathing room that diplomacy had not. In one sign of shifting US policy, the Trump administration temporarily waived sanctions to allow the purchase of 140 million barrels of Iranian oil at sea as a measure to ease oil prices.

What Washington still wants

One publicly stated justification for the US campaign was stopping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, even though US strikes last year were said to have severely damaged Iran’s nuclear programme.

President Trump has reiterated that Washington wants Tehran to surrender more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to near-weapons grade. Iran has responded that much of that material is now under rubble at a struck nuclear site.

Other longstanding US demands have included dismantling Iran’s ballistic missile programme and ending support for armed groups across the region. According to regional sources, Washington has recently proposed allowing Iran to retain about 1,000 medium-range missiles, which would be a relaxation of earlier demands.

All of this has to be judged against a deep lack of trust on the Iranian side. Trump carried out strikes while envoys were engaged in talks in June 2025 and again in February 2026, and his stated preference for regime change does not help build confidence.

Who would actually negotiate for Iran?

It is unclear which Iranian figures would lead any talks after the deaths of several senior officials, including Ali Larijani, who had been a go-between for mediators.

Iran has appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Zolghadr is a former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and has been secretary of the advisory Expediency Council since 2023. Analysts say his appointment signals that negotiations, if they happen, will be closely aligned with IRGC priorities.

Babak Vahdad, a political analyst, summed it up this way: the leadership looks less like it is preparing to compromise and more like it is preparing to manage a prolonged confrontation.

Military posture and the limits of diplomacy

Some observers argue that the brief pauses in US planning were aimed at calming surging oil prices while more forces arrived in the region. The US has sent thousands of Marines and several amphibious assault ships in recent weeks.

Mr. Trump has been noncommittal about deploying ground troops. He has discussed, at least in public commentary, the option of seizing Kharg island in the northern Gulf, a major export hub that accounts for about 90 percent of Iran’s oil shipments.

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political science professor, warns that Gulf governments and other partners would not accept a future in which Iran controlled the Strait of Hormuz. Given Tehran’s likely reluctance to give up leverage over the strait, Abdulla says there are few diplomatic solutions left and that some actors see a military option as the only way to reverse Iran’s control.

In short, a small diplomatic channel may exist, but Iran now holds fresh leverage, its negotiating demands have shifted upward, and mutual distrust runs deep. That makes any quick, tidy settlement unlikely.