Mercedes look to be the team to beat in Shanghai. After another weekend that started with a dominant 1-2 in qualifying and a strong race, expectations are simple: beat the W17 and you have your work cut out for you. That pushes the real action for the sprint toward the chasers, with McLaren and Ferrari likely to scrap over the podium places.

Mercedes hard to catch

There are still obvious weak points, namely the start and reliability, where anything can happen. Even so, if George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli survive the opening corners without incident, catching them will be a tall order. The same vibe was in Melbourne, where Ferrari threatened early on, but in Shanghai the gap could open up even more if the McLaren and Ferrari fight each other at the front. That kind of early battle would hand an advantage to the W17 cars.

McLaren vs Ferrari for the podium

Ferrari, through Charles Leclerc, have signaled that their strength this weekend may be race pace more than single-lap speed. The SF-26 also brings good starts to the table and showed a stronger long-run behaviour in the previous race than McLaren did. The MCL40 suffered tyre issues in Australia, while the Ferrari seemed kinder on its rubber. Even a short sprint can reveal tyre drop or graining, which was a major factor in 2025, so tyre management could decide who gets the higher step.

All signs point to a head-to-head between the Woking and Maranello squads for sprint podium places. Behind them, there do not appear to be serious challengers: Red Bull looked troubled in FP1 tyre simulations, with lots of graining, making them unlikely candidates to join the fight.

The sprint as a data run

Beyond points, the sprint will be a useful dress rehearsal. It is a chance for teams and drivers starting further back to collect set-up and tyre data ahead of qualifying and the race. That will matter for squads that struggled on Friday, not least Red Bull, who must work on their set-up before parc fermé conditions are adjusted prior to qualifying.

Who else to watch

  • Pierre Gasly and Oliver Bearman will hope the sprint brings points and momentum.
  • Teams that had tyre graining in practice will focus on tyre life and balance.
  • Anyone starting behind should treat the sprint as a technical exercise as much as a race.

In short: expect Mercedes to be the benchmark, and a tense, close contest between McLaren and Ferrari for sprint glory and useful data ahead of Sunday.