Oil prices popped back above $100 a barrel as Iran carried out a string of strikes on energy infrastructure across the Middle East, undoing some of the calming effect of huge government stockpile releases.

What was hit

Over several days Iran struck economic and energy targets in the region. The attacks included hits on merchant vessels around the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on fuel storage and port facilities. Notable developments:

  • Multiple merchant ships were struck in and around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane. One Thai-registered vessel, the Mayuree Naree, had three crew members reported as believed trapped.
  • Iraq suspended all operations at its oil ports after attacks on two nearby oil tankers.
  • Bahrain warned residents to stay at home following an attack on fuel tanks in Muharraq Governorate.
  • Oman moved vessels out of its main export terminal at Mina Al Fahal after drone strikes at another port.

Market reaction

The international benchmark, Brent crude, jumped about 9 percent to $100.29 a barrel at one point, later sliding back to roughly $98, still about 6 percent higher on the day. Earlier in the week Brent had briefly spiked to $119 a barrel, its first three-figure run in four years. For context, oil was trading around $60 a barrel at the start of the year.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate also rallied, rising roughly 8.6 percent to about $94.75 a barrel. Stock markets likewise felt the squeeze, with Japan's Nikkei down about 1.6 percent and South Korea's Kospi down about 1.2 percent. European natural gas prices climbed as well, up nearly 8 percent.

Why this matters

The Strait of Hormuz normally handles roughly one fifth of seaborne oil and gas trade. It has been effectively closed since the conflict escalated at the end of February, creating a choke point for global supplies. Saudi Arabia's state oil company warned of catastrophic consequences if the strait remains blocked.

Iran's military command added fuel to market nerves by warning that regional instability could push oil to much higher levels, saying, in essence, that oil prices depend on regional security.

Government and industry responses

Governments tried to calm markets with coordinated releases from strategic reserves. The International Energy Agency members agreed to an unprecedented release of 400 million barrels of emergency crude. The United States announced plans to add 172 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve, a program expected to begin next week and take about 120 days to deliver.

Financial institutions are already updating their outlooks. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast for late 2026, and market strategists warned investors about the growing risk of a stagflationary shock if the conflict drags on and damages regional economies.

Bottom line

Energy markets are now balancing two forces: massive emergency oil releases meant to steady prices, and real-time attacks that threaten actual supply routes. If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, expect higher volatility in oil and gas prices and more nervousness in equity markets. Politicians say they will push on with their strategies, while markets price in the risk of a longer, more damaging conflict.

Note: This piece focuses on economic and market impacts. Discussion of military actions has been kept measured out of respect for the human and geopolitical consequences involved.