High stakes, low options, says Mattis

Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told an audience at CERAWeek that the situation is complicated and the United States has few good moves left. "Were in a tough spot, ladies and gentlemen," he said. "I cant identify a lot of options." A White House spokesperson did not immediately respond to questions about Mattis comments.

Oil prices breathe, briefly

Markets reacted fast. Oil slid to about $90 a barrel on Monday after President Trump announced a five-day pause in attacks against Iran to try negotiating. For context, prices have jumped around a lot, swinging from nearly $120 to below $90 since the United States and Israel first struck targets in Iran on Feb. 28.

No obvious path to peace

Mattis said the damage U.S. missiles have done to Irans military targets has not secured long-term U.S. strategic goals. In his view, neither side can force the other to change course right now. "Never in history has air power alone changed a regime," he added.

Industry was gearing up for a permanent presence in Hormuz

Executives from the oil industry at the conference had been waiting to hear how long the U.S. would keep striking Iran. Privately, some were shifting toward the idea of a lasting U.S. presence in the Strait of Hormuz to prevent Iran from threatening oil tankers there. Then President Trump surprised many by saying he would begin talks with the Iranian regime.

One oil executive, speaking on background because he was not authorized to comment publicly, said the industry had been discussing a permanent solution to remove Irans leverage in the strait. He called the announcement of a pause or ceasefire a significant change in direction.

Analysts doubt a quick deal

Suzanne Maloney, director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, told the CERAWeek audience she does not expect negotiations to produce a durable settlement under current conditions. She listed what Iran would likely want from talks: reparations, and an end to U.S. military presence and support in the region.

Maloney noted those goals are probably unacceptable to Washington and to U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf. "Im not optimistic about negotiations under the current circumstances," she said.

Bottom line

  • Mattis: Ending the campaign now risks leaving Iran with control over the Strait of Hormuz and the United States has limited options.
  • Markets: Oil fell to about $90 a barrel after a five-day pause in attacks was announced.
  • Industry: Some executives favored a permanent U.S. presence in Hormuz before the pause was declared.
  • Analysts: Talks look unlikely to resolve core disagreements, especially demands from Iran that Washington and regional partners will resist.

This is a developing and delicate situation. The pause opens a small diplomatic window, but many experts and industry insiders see it as unlikely to become a lasting peace.